BITRE Predict Passenger Numbers to Double by 2030

The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) has released its latest report on projections of passenger movements through Australian capital and non-capitial city airports.  The projections  have been developed using expected growth in population, real income levels, exchange rates, real airfares and travel and accommodation prices.

For the first time, the report also includes statistics for Australian non-capital city airports including—Newcastle, Cairns, Gold Coast, Townsville and Launceston.

Passenger numbers are forecast to increase by 3.7 per cent a year over the forecast period, from 135.1 million in 2010–11 to 279.2 million in 2030–31.

Domestic and international air passenger movements are projected to increase by 3.3 and 4.9 per cent a year over the same period to 207.1 and 72.1 million, respectively, in 2030–31.

The number of air passenger movements through capital city and non-capital city airports are expected to grow by 3.8 and 3.2 per cent a year over the same period to 230.5 and 48.8 million, respectively, in 2030–31. Passenger numbers are forecast to grow by:

• 3.6 per cent a year in Sydney to 72.0 million in 2030–31;
• 3.9 per cent a year in Melbourne to 60.4 million in 2030–31;
• 4.2 per cent a year in Brisbane to 45.1 million in 2030–31;
• 3.1 per cent a year in Adelaide to 13.5 million in 2030–31;
• 4.4 per cent a year in Perth to 25.7 million in 2030–31;
• 3.0 per cent a year in Hobart to 3.5 million in 2030–31;
• 4.2 per cent a year in Darwin to 4.2 million in 2030–31;
• 3.3 per cent a year in Canberra to 6.1 million in 2030–31;
• 3.1 per cent a year in Newcastle to 2.2 million in 2030–31;
• 3.7 per cent a year in Cairns to 8.0 million in 2030–31;
• 4.4 per cent a year in Gold Coast to 13.1 million in 2030–31;
• 3.7 per cent a year in Townsville to 3.4 million in 2030–31;
• 2.7 per cent a year in Launceston to 2.0 million in 2030–31; and
• 2.3 per cent a year in all other airports to 20.1 million in 2030–31.

The growth may lead to the requirement for dedicated Air Traffic Control Towers at regional airports that currently do not have such services.

http://www.minister.infrastructure.gov.au/aa/releases/2012/November/aa237_2012.aspx for a copy of the media release.

http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2012/report_133.aspx for a copy of the report.